Watch: 11.2007

I'm way to casual about picking these however, I like the following for no particular reason.

WSPI - 10.94

TGA - 5.33

AIS - 1.14

AAU - 2.86

Things I was looking for:

• Had to be highly rated on CAPS
• Chart had to show "potential" for growth
• Looking for stocks that had attempted to break the previous day's high.

Watch: Recaps for 10/2007

The following stocks were picked and sold as follows

• CHNG
• Bought on 08/03 @ $6.65
• Sold on 10/19 @ $11.45
  
• $1,000 invested = 150 shares
  
• Gained $4.80 or $720
  

• TGB
  
• Bought on 08/03 @ $5.10
• Sold on 10/19 @ $5.51
• $1,000 invested = 195 shares
  
• Gain $0.39 or $76.05
  

• WRS
  
• Bought on 08/03 @ 6.25
• Sold on 10/19 @ $7.05
• $1,000 invested = 160 shares
  
• Lost $0.80 or $160
  

• PUDC
  
• Bought on 08/05 @ $1.87
• Sold on 10/19 @1.96
• $1,000 invested = 534 shares
• Gain $0.10 or $53

• SVA
  
• Bought on 09/05 $3.60
• Sold on 10/19 $5.74
• $1,000 invested = 276 shares
• Gain $2.14 or $590

Total

Invested: $5,000
Gained: $1,599.86
Lost: $0
Balance: 1599.86

Watch: Recaps for 08.2007

The following stocks were picked and sold as follows

• CHNG
• Bought on 08/03 @ $6.65
• Sold on 09/05 @ $5.55
  
• $1,000 invested = 150 shares
  
• Lost $1.10 or $165.41
  

• TGB
  
• Bought on 08/03 @ $5.10
• Sold on 08/05 @ $5.45
• $1,000 invested = 195 shares
  
• Gain $0.35 or $68.25
  

• WRS
  
• Bought on 08/03 @ 6.25
• Sold on 09/05 @ $5.79
• $1,000 invested = 160 shares
  
• Lost $0.46 or $73.60
  

• PUDC
  
• Bought on 08/05 @ $1.87
• Sold on 08/13 @2.04
• $1,000 invested = 534 shares
• Gain $0.17 or $90.61

Total

Invested: $4,000
Gained: $158.86
Lost: $239.01
Balance: -$80.15

Find a Stock that moves 1500%

Instructions:

1. Use any of your favorite stock investing software. This example assumes excel based system.
2. Calculate the lowest close for a stock in last 260 days. If a stock has less than 260 days data calculate lowest close for those many days.
3. Calculate percent change from lowest close and select stocks which had 100% plus growth
4. Find the highest price in the 100% move and only take stocks which are within 25% of that highest price.
5. So this is your trading universe of stock which have made significant move of 100% or more and are as of today within 25% of the high during the move
6. Use a significant one day move scan on these stocks. e.g. say a 5% move ( 100 * (C - C1) / C1) >= 5 AND V >= 1000 AND V > V1)
7. Buy next day with 1% risk and stop below the low of previous two days bar
8. Trail with a stop
9. If you get stopped buy again on next breakout
   
10. Enjoy your profits

From StockBee

More on PE and PEG

This post contains general notes on PE and PEG metrics

Stock should have a "good" PE ration

I use the word good, because this depends on the sector that the stock is in. There is no generic number, but generally the lower the PE the better.

Calculation can be done one of two ways, (however this is normally available on any financial site)

• P/E = share price divided by earnings per share
• P/E = market capitalization divided by net income

Be aware there are a number of different types of P/E numbers:

• Current P/E - uses the past 12 months
• Forward P/E - uses predicted earnings per share

If a company sells a division for substantially more than its book worth, this will affect the P/E.

Many people prefer to use free cash flow rather then P/E for valuation.

Note: P/B (Price to Book) should only be used for those companies with negative earnings. I don't like companies with negative earnings so I didn't learn much about it.

Note: P/S (Price to Sale) should only be used for those companies which are unprofitable. I don't like these companies so I didn't learn much about it.

From The Motley Fool - P/E definition
From Yahoo Finance - P/E By Sector

Rule: PEG Less then 1.0

A PEG of less then one generally is a good sign that a company is undervalued.

Calculation: P/E divided by rate earnings will grow (a guess)

A PEG of 1 = A fairly valued company
A PEG below 1 = An undervalued company
A PEG above 1 = An overvalued company

PEG is not helpful when the earnings estimate is 0 or negative

From The Motley Fool - Usefulness of PEG

Stocks to Watch 2007.08.07

PUDC - google

Price: $1.87
Recommended on caps site, This is a wild guess in the dark as I have not learned anything yet.

Fundamentals:

• Free Cash Flow: 10.2 Mill
  
• Market cap: 181 Mill
  
• Debt: 38.71 Mill
  
• Enterprise value: 209.51
• True Value: $2.18 / share
• P/E: 16.1
  
• Sector P/G Rating: 14.5
• 5 year earning estimate: Unknown, not given
  
• PEG: Unknown due to earnings estimates
  
• Operating Income/Loss: +22 Mill
  

Questions to be Asked

• Y - Company has Positive Cash Flow
  
• Y - Stock is priced under $10.00
• Y - Stock is under valued - Est. value is $2.18
  
• Y - Is Small Cap Stock under 1 Bill market cap
  
• Y - PE is below sector average
• Y - Last quarter was profitable
• Y - YTD was profitable
  
• Y - Last Year was profitable
  
• NA - Has positive quarterly estimates (Can not find)
  
• NA - PEG is less then 1.0 (Can not find)
  
• NA - chart patterns (None found)
  

PSPT - google

Price: $9.40
Recommended on caps site, This is a wild guess in the dark as I have not learned anything yet.
After evaluating this stock, I decied that it wasn't that great a pick. Mostly due to the fact that the true value of the stock is not that high. Not an undervalued stock.

Fundamentals:

• Free Cash Flow: 15
  
• Market cap: 227.09
• Debt: 0
• Enterprise value: 114
  
• True Value: 114/23.56 = 4.75
  
• P/E: 13.36
  
• 5 year earning estimate: 22
  
• PEG: .60
• Sector P/G Rating: 22.65
  

Questions to be Asked

• Y - Company has Positive Cash Flow
  
• Y - Stock is priced under $10.00
• N - Stock is under valued - Est. value is $5.0
  
• Y - Is Small Cap Stock under 1 Bill market cap
  
• Y - PE is below sector average
• Y - Last quarter was profitable
• Y - YTD was profitable
  
• Y - Last Year was profitable
  
• Y - Has positive quarterly estimates
  
• N - PEG is less then 1.0 (Only if profitable and has earning estimates)
  
• ???? - chart patterns

ISV- google

Price: $9.40
Recommended on caps site, This is a wild guess in the dark as I have not learned anything yet.

Fundamentals:

• Free Cash Flow: -16.5 - .32 = -17MM
  
• Market cap: 129MM
• Debt: 9 MM
  
• Enterprise value: 128 + 17 + 8 = 153MM
  
• True Value: 153/93.82 = 1.82
  Stopped Researching at this point as I did not like what I was seeing so far...True Value seems to indicate a lot for a stock
  

Basic Chart Patterns

Regular Chart Patterns - Learn them

Please note: I am not a financial advisor, take all you read here with a grain of salt.

Head and Shoulders - picture

Signals that the price will make a downward move after having moved up in past periods.

Inverse Head and Shoulder signals the opposite

Cup and Handle - picture

Signals that the price will continue in an upward direction after the handle after having moved down in past periods.

Pattern should be a nicely rounded formation, similar to a semi-circle.

The valley should be between one-third and two-thirds the size of the previous upward movement

Double Top, Double Bottom - picture

Sometimes called "Twin Peaks"

Double Top (M) - Signals a downward direction change after moving up in past periods

Double Bottom (W) - Signals an updated direction change after moving down in past periods

Symmetrical Triangle - picture

Signals a consolidation to a given price. Once consolidated it may move in original direction, but it can go in the opposite direction.

Ascending Triangle - picture

Triangle shape, the top of the triangle will be straight. Each "side" of the triangle should be "tested"/"touched" multiple times.

Signals the price is to take an upward direction.

The optimum point to get in on this is right before it moves above the top of the triangle.

Descending Triangle signals the exact opposite.

Wedge - picture

Looks a lot like the symmetrical triangles, however they tend to last over longer periods of time.

Good Question: What's the difference between a wedge and a triangle

Gap - picture

A gap doesn't signify much as far as price trending, other then drastic changes in price.

Triple Top - picture

Trend has to test the same limit 3 times

Trend has to fall to the same support 2 times

Each test of limit will be marked with declining volume

Signals a downward direction

Triple Bottom - picture

Trend has to test the same limit 3 times

Trend has to fall to the same support 3 times

Signals an upward direction

Be careful as this looks just like Triple Top but signals an upward trend.

References:

Investpedia